9 May 2019

Sydney’s top 50 most vulnerable property markets

The property market in suburbs including Liverpool, Wiley Park, North Parramatta and Fairfield are among those expected to suffer significant additional falls in value under the federal Labor Party’s (ALP) policies of ending negative gearing and changing capital gains tax.

REINSW has released an analysis of the 50 property markets across Sydney that are most vulnerable to the ALP’s policies of reducing the number of investors in the market. It shows 41 out of the 50 property markets are in Labor-held electorates.

“The data identifies those suburbs that have a high proportion of rental properties and which have already suffered double digit falls in property values,” says REINSW CEO, Tim McKibbin. 

“On this basis, new policies that cause investors to exit will reduce the number of buyers in the market further. This in turn will escalate the losses in value. 

“When we compared the data against federal electorates, we discovered that the overwhelming majority of seats are held by the ALP.”

Number one on the list is Liverpool in the Labor seat of Fowler, held by Chris Hay. Over the past 12 months, median house values in Liverpool – where 52.2 per cent of the property is rented – have fallen -25.3 per cent, according to data from CoreLogic. The median value of a house in Liverpool is now $643,526. 

Wiley Park is second on the list in the Labor seat of Watson, currently held by Tony Burke. The proportion of properties rented in Wiley Park is currently 50.3 per cent and house values have dropped -21 per cent over the past 12 months to a median value of $700,998.

Eastlakes in the federal seat of Kingsford Smith, held by Matt Thistlethwaite is third. The median value of a house in Eastlakes has fallen -20.4 per cent over the past 12 months and is currently $1.228 million. The data shows 52 per cent of Eastlakes’s residents are renting.

Other ALP seats affected include Sydney, held by Tanya Plibersek, Grayndler held by Anthony Albanese, Parramatta held by Julie Owens, Chiefly held by Ed Husic and Werriwa held by Anne Stanley.

Of the 50 suburbs, 44 had value losses greater than 10 per cent and 11 had property value losses greater than 15 per cent. 

“These property markets have already suffered significantly under the property downturn, any policy that reduces buyer activity further is going to undermine prices further,” McKibbin says.

The data reveals the suburb of Airds in the federal seat of Macarthur has the highest number of properties under rental with 92.7 per cent tenanted. Bidwell in the seat of Chifley has the next highest number of rental properties with 76.9 per cent of the property stock tenanted. This is followed by Warwick Farm where 67.7 per cent of properties are rented.

The members with the most property markets in the list are Tanya Plibersek, Member for Sydney, and Ed Husic, Member for Chifley, with seven each.

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